Casper SMC Short Session Method (SSM)
Casper's numbers held up on his own dates. Over 5 years it made about $49,000 on one NQ contract, but almost all of that came from the year he showed, and about 2 out of 3 prop firm challenges failed.
▶ Watch the video- Trades
- 1,910
- Win rate
- 69.0%
- Profit factor
- 1.09
- Reward : risk
- 0.5R
- Biggest drop
- $24,175
- Net result
- +$49,400
A dash means the video did not report that number.
The test
- How I tested
- Coded backtest
- When
- Oct 1, 2021 to Sep 30, 2026 (5 years)
- Market
- NQ futures, 5-minute chart
- Trades
- 1,910 trades
- Risk per trade
- One NQ contract. The stop is the signal candle, so the risk changes every day
- Fees
- $5 commission per trade and one tick of slippage on the entry and on the stop
The numbers
Every trade, charted
1910 trades on NQ, from the coded backtest trade log for this test.
- Win rate
- 69%
- Profit factor
- 1.09
- Net
- $49,400 · 51.3R
- Biggest drop
- -$24,175 · 20.5R
- Longest losing run
- 6 trades
Would these exact trades pass a 50K challenge?
Same trades, same order, same days. Each trade is resized so a 1R loss costs the amount you pick. Rules checked 2026-09-16; evaluation only, payouts not included.
| Firm | Starting on day 1 | Starting on each day in the log |
|---|---|---|
| LucidDaily | Failed on trading day 60 | 527 of 1244 start days passed · 603 failed |
| LucidFlex · My Funded Futures Rapid | Failed on trading day 60 | 527 of 1244 start days passed · 603 failed |
| Tradeify Select to Flex / Select to Daily | Failed on trading day 60 | 527 of 1244 start days passed · 603 failed |
| My Funded Futures Rapid EOD | Failed on trading day 60 | 527 of 1244 start days passed · 603 failed |
| Apex Trader Funding EOD | Failed on trading day 60 | 527 of 1244 start days passed · 603 failed |
| Topstep Standard XFA / Consistency XFA | Failed on trading day 60 | 528 of 1244 start days passed · 602 failed |
| Take Profit Trader Test to PRO | Failed on trading day 60 | 528 of 1244 start days passed · 602 failed |
“Not finished” means the log ended before the target or the drawdown was hit. A short log leaves many late start dates unfinished. Run thousands of random orderings in the simulator →
Trade log
Trade log linked under the video
Open trade logOpens the original shared file. Direct download has not been confirmed.More from the test
- Coverage
- Oct 1, 2021 to Sep 30, 2026 (5 years, 1,244 sessions)
- Claim in his video
- Sep 2025 to Sep 2026: 384 trades, 73% win rate, just over $49,000
- My test on his dates
- Sep 2, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026: 410 trades, 72.2% win rate, +$45,410, PF 1.33, $11,605 max drawdown
- Four years before
- Oct 2021 to Aug 2025: about +$4,000 over 1,500 trades
- Year by year
- 2021 (from Oct 1) -$3,195 · 2022 -$15,445 · 2023 +$25,075 · 2024 -$7,500 · 2025 +$26,620 · 2026 (to Sep 30) +$23,845
- Cost of trading
- $71,470 before costs. Commissions and slippage took $22,070 of it
- Size of the losses
- Last year on one NQ contract: average loss about $1,200, biggest loss $3,835, worst day -$6,585
- Back to 2016
- Run back to January 2016, it lost about $7,000
- Prop firm 25K
- My Funded Futures Rapid, one NQ contract: 109 challenges, 26 passed (24%)
- Prop firm 50K
- 58 challenges, 20 passed (34%)
- Prop firm 100K
- 31 challenges, 10 passed (32%)
- Prop firm failures
- Every failed challenge hit the max loss limit
A note
It lost money in 2021, 2022 and 2024, and made money in 2023, 2025 and 2026, so it looks like it depends on the kind of market. The prop firm numbers above use one NQ contract on My Funded Futures Rapid over his dates. The table on this page resizes every trade to a fixed dollar risk over the full 5 years, so its results are different.
Where the numbers come from
Checked Oct 4, 2026. These numbers come from the video and the coded backtest trade log charted above. They are backtest or simulated results, not live trading, and not financial advice.
Original video ↗